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Slot Machine Strategy: Probability

July 26th, 2010

Not everything is how it appears when it comes to slot machines. Initially they might seem like they are easy to read. All you really need to know is what the payouts are right?

Appearances can be on the deceiving side actually. And that is one of the downfalls in a player’s slots strategy. How can slot machines be one of those cases of ‘more than meets the eye?’

For one thing you do not want to base your decision to play a slot machine purely on its payout table. Work this into your slots strategy.

Let’s take a look at two example slot machines. And keep that above adage for your slots strategy in mind. Both machines have the same payout percentage of 95%.

For our first slot machine we are going to call it Little Winner. It is a $1 slot machine with payouts of $1, $10, $100 and $1,000.

The other slot machine we are going to call Big Winner. This is a $2 slot machine with these four payouts: $2, $20, $200 and $2,000.

The player with the almost non-existent slots strategy would think “Hey, I can wager $2 and win $2,000, which is a $1,000 more than if I were to play the $1 slot machine.”

In the above slots strategy the player makes his playing choice based on the payout table, believing that he should go with the slot machine that will give him the higher payout.

But here is what he does not know about slot machines: The probabilities on these two machines have been set differently. The probabilities of a slot machine are the chances of each winning combination being landed. The probabilities can be set differently and the payout percentage will not be affected.

Little Winner’s probabilities are set with 0.05% for $1,000, 0.24% for $100, 1.22% for $10 and 9.75% for $1 with losses at 88.74%. Big Winner looks like this: 0.02% for $2,000, 0.12% for $200, 0.61% for $20 and 4.62% for $2 with losses at 94.62%.

In summary, adding up the math, Little Winner has a hit rate of 11.26% while Big Winner has a hit rate of 5.38%. When comparing the corresponding payouts you will notice that the payouts on Big Winner are about twice as hard to land.

While a slots player is not able to know what the probability is on a slot machine, the whole point is to not immediately assume that the machine that has the highest payout is the machine to play. As we can see in the example, the player that assumed that would have lost more than the player who spins the reels on Little Winner.

Assuming is one of the things you do not want to base your slots strategy on.

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One Response to “Slot Machine Strategy: Probability”

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